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They are concisely delivered, and still pack a big punch in effectiveness. Review "This book brings good contemporary social science to the public debate about the role of terror in the modern democracy.

How terrorist attacks can change opinions and elections — including the 2016 election

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And those threatened individuals were also more likely to base voting decisions on leadership qualities rather than on issue positions or partisanship. Generally speaking, we find that terrorist threat advantages Republicans more than Democrats, in part because Republicans are traditionally perceived as better able to handle issues related to national defense.


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In another study we conducted with Mirya Holman in , we found that evaluations of Hillary Clinton decreased when terrorism was made salient, but evaluations of John Kerry remained the same and evaluations of George Bush and Condoleezza Rice became more favorable. Leaders who are both female and Democratic may therefore experience the most negative political consequences of terrorist attacks. Of course, this study was conducted before Clinton served as secretary of state, which we revisit below.

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A third way public opinion shifts in response to terrorism is toward support for more hawkish policies in foreign affairs and homeland security, even at the expense of civil liberties. This hawkishness occurs among partisans of all stripes. So what should we expect for the presidential campaign under way? In the Democratic primary, we would not expect major changes in support for Clinton or Sanders.

The increased salience of terrorism may prove more consequential for the Republican nomination. Candidates who have taken more isolationist stands on foreign policy, such as Rand Paul, may be perceived as less attractive, while those who have taken more hawkish stands — such as Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush — may be more advantaged. Primary voters may also be less likely to support candidates with little experience in government and thus national security, such as Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.

Trump is a bit of a wild card, however. His bold style may be appealing in a context of threat. However, he may be hurt by his lack of any significant foreign policy experience, a fact he himself recognized during the Republican foreign policy debate.